The average person always thinks that it is safer to put money in the bank, or simply buy the government bonds or long-term public bonds; On the contrary, love and hate stocks, think that buying stocks is very speculative, is not a proper way to manage money, such a view is very common in our lives, but stocks are really so terrible?
Curiously, whenever the stock market is overheated or high, the public thinks that investment is very simple, the stock market is actually safe and stable, and the stock is regarded as a stable fixed deposit stock; When the stock market is at a low or depressed point (recession), it is best not to touch the stock market, which is a dangerous place for speculation.
I still remember that one day stock market gain much points then, I went to the bank to move a sum of money and prepare to put it into the stock market, and the bank counter staff heard about it and asked me in surprise: “Hasn’t the stock market been very bad lately?” This is how the general public or the media view the stock market: do not enter the market when the market is poor.
Not only the general public may have a misunderstanding of the stock market, but even people with a business management background or long-term study of the stock market may misunderstand the face of the stock market to some extent. This article takes the US stock market as an example, the world’s largest capital market has a long history, and long-term data retention is intact, so that we have a way to observe the stock market for a long time; The following historical material on S&P500 and U.S. Treasuries, taken from the website of Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University Business School, will use the calculation of rolling returns to present readers with the long-term picture of the stock market.
【Table 1】From the beginning of 1928 to the end of 2016 (total 89 years) S&P 500, US 3-month Treasury Bills and US 10-Year Treasury Bonds
| Year | S&P 500 | 3-month T. Bill | 10-year T. Bond |
| 1928 | 43.81% | 3.08% | 0.84% |
| 1929 | -8.30% | 3.16% | 4.20% |
| 1930 | -25.12% | 4.55% | 4.54% |
| 1931 | -43.84% | 2.31% | -2.56% |
| 1932 | -8.64% | 1.07% | 8.79% |
| 1933 | 49.98% | 0.96% | 1.86% |
| 1934 | -1.19% | 0.32% | 7.96% |
| 1935 | 46.74% | 0.18% | 4.47% |
| 1936 | 31.94% | 0.17% | 5.02% |
| 1937 | -35.34% | 0.30% | 1.38% |
| 1938 | 29.28% | 0.08% | 4.21% |
| 1939 | -1.10% | 0.04% | 4.41% |
| 1940 | -10.67% | 0.03% | 5.40% |
| 1941 | -12.77% | 0.08% | -2.02% |
| 1942 | 19.17% | 0.34% | 2.29% |
| 1943 | 25.06% | 0.38% | 2.49% |
| 1944 | 19.03% | 0.38% | 2.58% |
| 1945 | 35.82% | 0.38% | 3.80% |
| 1946 | -8.43% | 0.38% | 3.13% |
| 1947 | 5.20% | 0.57% | 0.92% |
| 1948 | 5.70% | 1.02% | 1.95% |
| 1949 | 18.30% | 1.10% | 4.66% |
| 1950 | 30.81% | 1.17% | 0.43% |
| 1951 | 23.68% | 1.48% | -0.30% |
| 1952 | 18.15% | 1.67% | 2.27% |
| 1953 | -1.21% | 1.89% | 4.14% |
| 1954 | 52.56% | 0.96% | 3.29% |
| 1955 | 32.60% | 1.66% | -1.34% |
| 1956 | 7.44% | 2.56% | -2.26% |
| 1957 | -10.46% | 3.23% | 6.80% |
| Year | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 1958 | 43.72% | 1.78% | -2.10% |
| 1959 | 12.06% | 3.26% | -2.65% |
| 1960 | 0.34% | 3.05% | 11.64% |
| 1961 | 26.64% | 2.27% | 2.06% |
| 1962 | -8.81% | 2.78% | 5.69% |
| 1963 | 22.61% | 3.11% | 1.68% |
| 1964 | 16.42% | 3.51% | 3.73% |
| 1965 | 12.40% | 3.90% | 0.72% |
| 1966 | -9.97% | 4.84% | 2.91% |
| 1967 | 23.80% | 4.33% | -1.58% |
| 1968 | 10.81% | 5.26% | 3.27% |
| 1969 | -8.24% | 6.56% | -5.01% |
| 1970 | 3.56% | 6.69% | 16.75% |
| 1971 | 14.22% | 4.54% | 9.79% |
| 1972 | 18.76% | 3.95% | 2.82% |
| 1973 | -14.31% | 6.73% | 3.66% |
| 1974 | -25.90% | 7.78% | 1.99% |
| 1975 | 37.00% | 5.99% | 3.61% |
| 1976 | 23.83% | 4.97% | 15.98% |
| 1977 | -6.98% | 5.13% | 1.29% |
| 1978 | 6.51% | 6.93% | -0.78% |
| 1979 | 18.52% | 9.94% | 0.67% |
| 1980 | 31.74% | 11.22% | -2.99% |
| 1981 | -4.70% | 14.30% | 8.20% |
| 1982 | 20.42% | 11.01% | 32.81% |
| 1983 | 22.34% | 8.45% | 3.20% |
| 1984 | 6.15% | 9.61% | 13.73% |
| 1985 | 31.24% | 7.49% | 25.71% |
| 1986 | 18.49% | 6.04% | 24.28% |
| 1987 | 5.81% | 5.72% | -4.96% |
| Year | S&P 500 | 3-month T. Bill | 10-year T. Bond |
| 1988 | 16.54% | 6.45% | 8.22% |
| 1989 | 31.48% | 8.11% | 17.69% |
| 1990 | -3.06% | 7.55% | 6.24% |
| 1991 | 30.23% | 5.61% | 15.00% |
| 1992 | 7.49% | 3.41% | 9.36% |
| 1993 | 9.97% | 2.98% | 14.21% |
| 1994 | 1.33% | 3.99% | -8.04% |
| 1995 | 37.20% | 5.52% | 23.48% |
| 1996 | 22.68% | 5.02% | 1.43% |
| 1997 | 33.10% | 5.05% | 9.94% |
| 1998 | 28.34% | 4.73% | 14.92% |
| 1999 | 20.89% | 4.51% | -8.25% |
| 2000 | -9.03% | 5.76% | 16.66% |
| 2001 | -11.85% | 3.67% | 5.57% |
| 2002 | -21.97% | 1.66% | 15.12% |
| 2003 | 28.36% | 1.03% | 0.38% |
| 2004 | 10.74% | 1.23% | 4.49% |
| 2005 | 4.83% | 3.01% | 2.87% |
| 2006 | 15.61% | 4.68% | 1.96% |
| 2007 | 5.48% | 4.64% | 10.21% |
| 2008 | -36.55% | 1.59% | 20.10% |
| 2009 | 25.94% | 0.14% | -11.12% |
| 2010 | 14.82% | 0.13% | 8.46% |
| 2011 | 2.10% | 0.03% | 16.04% |
| 2012 | 15.89% | 0.05% | 2.97% |
| 2013 | 32.15% | 0.07% | -9.10% |
| 2014 | 13.52% | 0.05% | 10.75% |
| 2015 | 1.36% | 0.21% | 1.28% |
| 2016 | 11.74% | 0.51% | 0.69% |
From the data of [Table 1], we calculate the winning rate of the S&P 500 relative to the US 3-month Treasury Bills and US 10-year Treasury Bonds: On an annual basis, the S&P 500 wins against the US 3-month Treasury Bills are as high as 67.42% (that’s 89 years, S&P 500). 60 years of victory); The S&P 500 wins 62.92% relative to U.S. 10-year Treasuries (that’s 89 years, S&P 500 wins out of 56 years). This means holding the stock market for a whole year, and the stock market has a relatively large winning side!
So why does the public always think that the stock market is more dangerous? There is no other reason, because the stock market is more volatile. If you look at the maximum and minimum rates of return of the three, as shown in Table
2:【Table 2】From the beginning of 1928 to the end of 2016 (total 89 years) The S&P 500, the largest of US3-month Treasury bills and US 10-year Treasuries/Minimum annual rate of return
| S&P 500 | 3-month T. Bill | 10-year T. Bond | |
| Minimum annual rate of return | -43.84% | 0.03% | -11.12% |
| Maximum annual rate of return | 52.56% | 14.30% | 32.81% |
The stock market performed worst in 1931, falling 43.84%; The stock market performed best in 1954, up 52.56%. In contrast, the performance of the US 10-year Treasury bond is much more stable, while the performance of the US 3-month Treasury bond is more stable, which is why the public believes that the stock market is dangerous, because the stock market always fluctuates.
The above is a one-year holding situation, and then we will further examine the status of “long-term” holdings.
We will analyze it in terms of the rolling rate of return, which is explained by the 5-year rolling rate of return, that is, the first 5 years from the beginning of 1928 to the end of 1932 as the first period5 Annual rolling rate of return, and from the beginning of 1929 to the end of 1933 when the second period of 5 years rolling rate of return, and so on, until the last 5 years, that is The beginning of 2012 to the end of 2016 is considered as the 85th five-year rolling rate of return.
The advantage of such an analysis is that it avoids jumping to conclusions about any period of time, and it can be compared with other asset classes, which is a more objective way of analysis. Below we will analyze it in terms of rolling returns.
【Table 3】From the beginning of 1928 to the end of 2016 (total 89 years) S&P 500, US 3-month Treasury Bills and US 10-Year Treasury Bonds 5 Annual rolling rate of return
| 5-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 1 | -49.34% | 14.96% | 16.44% |
| 2 | -47.16% | 12.60% | 17.62% |
| 3 | -43.06% | 9.50% | 21.87% |
| 4 | 11.58% | 4.92% | 21.78% |
| 5 | 162.14% | 2.72% | 31.25% |
| 6 | 85.54% | 1.94% | 22.31% |
| 7 | 59.93% | 1.05% | 25.14% |
| 8 | 60.08% | 0.76% | 21.03% |
| 9 | -2.55% | 0.61% | 22.11% |
| 10 | -35.58% | 0.53% | 13.92% |
| 11 | 18.73% | 0.56% | 14.95% |
| 12 | 14.86% | 0.86% | 13.05% |
| 13 | 38.23% | 1.21% | 11.06% |
| 14 | 110.18% | 1.57% | 9.38% |
| 15 | 120.64% | 1.87% | 15.13% |
| 16 | 94.77% | 2.10% | 13.58% |
| 17 | 64.62% | 2.76% | 12.98% |
| 18 | 63.62% | 3.50% | 15.28% |
| 19 | 57.58% | 4.32% | 11.53% |
| 20 | 112.83% | 5.46% | 7.83% |
| 21 | 139.03% | 6.61% | 9.27% |
| 22 | 123.40% | 7.53% | 11.62% |
| 23 | 188.09% | 7.38% | 10.16% |
| 24 | 192.04% | 7.90% | 8.22% |
| 25 | 153.69% | 9.05% | 6.09% |
| 26 | 92.26% | 10.72% | 10.79% |
| 27 | 179.70% | 10.59% | 4.15% |
| 28 | 105.44% | 13.10% | -1.84% |
| 29 | 55.46% | 14.64% | 11.07% |
| 30 | 83.23% | 14.32% | 15.98% |
| 31 | 86.60% | 13.82% | 14.78% |
| 5-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 32 | 59.20% | 15.31% | 19.21% |
| 33 | 65.39% | 15.59% | 27.02% |
| 34 | 85.27% | 16.55% | 14.60% |
| 35 | 31.71% | 19.48% | 15.55% |
| 36 | 78.82% | 21.29% | 7.59% |
| 37 | 61.62% | 23.82% | 9.28% |
| 38 | 27.39% | 27.48% | 0.07% |
| 39 | 17.37% | 30.89% | 16.00% |
| 40 | 48.91% | 30.52% | 23.75% |
| 41 | 42.84% | 30.04% | 29.29% |
| 42 | 10.45% | 31.85% | 29.77% |
| 43 | -10.80% | 33.36% | 39.33% |
| 44 | 17.99% | 32.49% | 23.64% |
| 45 | 27.92% | 33.03% | 30.62% |
| 46 | 0.20% | 34.54% | 28.68% |
| 47 | 24.54% | 34.80% | 23.17% |
| 48 | 99.20% | 37.50% | 21.58% |
| 49 | 91.55% | 44.28% | 13.84% |
| 50 | 47.41% | 57.11% | 6.20% |
| 51 | 90.83% | 65.90% | 39.25% |
| 52 | 119.19% | 68.25% | 44.83% |
| 53 | 96.31% | 67.75% | 63.63% |
| 54 | 95.56% | 62.12% | 112.04% |
| 55 | 143.17% | 50.40% | 143.56% |
| 56 | 113.67% | 43.24% | 74.29% |
| 57 | 103.54% | 40.60% | 82.77% |
| 58 | 152.11% | 38.67% | 89.14% |
| 59 | 86.22% | 38.75% | 59.83% |
| 60 | 104.67% | 38.20% | 47.90% |
| 61 | 107.92% | 35.17% | 70.19% |
| 62 | 96.20% | 30.76% | 79.60% |
| 5-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 63 | 51.21% | 25.77% | 40.34% |
| 64 | 114.01% | 23.39% | 63.12% |
| 65 | 101.60% | 22.71% | 43.86% |
| 66 | 149.63% | 24.66% | 44.62% |
| 67 | 191.33% | 26.78% | 45.52% |
| 68 | 247.56% | 27.42% | 45.18% |
| 69 | 130.45% | 27.71% | 37.15% |
| 70 | 65.59% | 26.07% | 42.76% |
| 71 | -2.92% | 22.00% | 49.48% |
| 72 | -2.91% | 17.69% | 30.56% |
| 73 | -11.05% | 13.99% | 48.69% |
| 74 | 2.50% | 11.03% | 31.12% |
| 75 | 34.44% | 12.10% | 26.64% |
| 76 | 81.73% | 15.40% | 21.24% |
| 77 | -10.17% | 16.03% | 45.06% |
| 78 | 2.16% | 14.78% | 23.40% |
| 79 | 11.89% | 11.57% | 30.11% |
| 80 | -1.19% | 6.61% | 48.07% |
| 81 | 8.56% | 1.94% | 38.34% |
| 82 | 126.09% | 0.41% | 4.70% |
| 83 | 103.81% | 0.33% | 30.45% |
| 84 | 79.92% | 0.41% | 21.82% |
| 85 | 96.91% | 0.89% | 5.71% |
We have calculated from [Table 3] the winning rate of the S&P 500 relative to the US 3-month Treasury Bills and US 10-year Treasury Bonds:At a rolling rate of return for each 5-year period, the S&P 500 wins a whopping 75.29% (or 85) relative to the US 3-month Treasury Bill In 5 years, S&P 500 won 64); The S&P 500 wins 74.12% (or 85 5s) relative to U.S. 10-year Treasuries In the middle of the year, the S&P 500 won 63), holding the stock market 5 compared to the situation of only holding 1 year The win rate of the year has increased.
【Table 4】From the beginning of1928 to the end of2016 (total 89years)The S&P 500, US3-month Treasury Bills and US10-yearTreasuries are the largest/Minimum5-year rate of return
| S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond | |
| Minimum 5-year returns | -49.34% | 0.33% | -1.84% |
| Maximum 5-year return | 247.56% | 68.25% | 143.56% |
【Table 5】From the beginning of1928 to the end of2016 (total 89years)S&P 500, US3-month Treasury Bills and US10-YearTreasury Bonds 10Annual rolling rate of return
| 10-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 1 | -6.00% | 17.19% | 42.43% |
| 2 | -15.49% | 13.78% | 47.20% |
| 3 | -8.86% | 10.34% | 47.49% |
| 4 | 8.73% | 5.56% | 48.71% |
| 5 | 68.88% | 3.26% | 49.53% |
| 6 | 120.30% | 2.51% | 40.60% |
| 7 | 83.69% | 1.93% | 41.47% |
| 8 | 121.28% | 1.98% | 34.42% |
| 9 | 104.82% | 2.19% | 33.56% |
| 10 | 42.15% | 2.41% | 31.15% |
| 11 | 131.26% | 2.68% | 30.56% |
| 12 | 89.08% | 3.65% | 27.73% |
| 13 | 126.17% | 4.75% | 28.03% |
| 14 | 231.19% | 5.95% | 21.99% |
| 15 | 369.58% | 7.43% | 24.14% |
| 16 | 365.55% | 8.86% | 24.11% |
| 17 | 267.76% | 10.50% | 26.11% |
| 18 | 371.37% | 11.14% | 26.99% |
| 19 | 360.18% | 12.56% | 20.70% |
| 20 | 439.93% | 15.00% | 14.40% |
| 21 | 359.57% | 18.04% | 21.06% |
| 22 | 524.84% | 18.92% | 16.25% |
| 23 | 491.85% | 21.45% | 8.13% |
| 24 | 353.99% | 23.70% | 20.20% |
| 25 | 364.85% | 24.67% | 23.04% |
| 26 | 258.77% | 26.02% | 27.16% |
| 27 | 345.27% | 27.53% | 24.16% |
| 28 | 239.77% | 30.74% | 24.69% |
| 29 | 188.02% | 33.62% | 27.28% |
| 30 | 141.34% | 36.60% | 34.01% |
| 10-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 31 | 233.69% | 38.06% | 23.50% |
| 32 | 157.29% | 42.78% | 30.27% |
| 33 | 110.68% | 47.36% | 27.11% |
| 34 | 117.45% | 52.56% | 32.93% |
| 35 | 96.13% | 55.95% | 42.99% |
| 36 | 155.42% | 57.73% | 39.10% |
| 37 | 78.51% | 63.26% | 41.80% |
| 38 | 13.62% | 70.00% | 39.43% |
| 39 | 38.49% | 73.42% | 43.42% |
| 40 | 90.48% | 73.63% | 61.65% |
| 41 | 43.12% | 74.96% | 66.36% |
| 42 | 37.56% | 77.74% | 59.83% |
| 43 | 77.68% | 83.37% | 69.40% |
| 44 | 126.02% | 91.16% | 40.75% |
| 45 | 88.57% | 109.01% | 38.72% |
| 46 | 91.21% | 123.20% | 79.19% |
| 47 | 172.98% | 126.80% | 78.39% |
| 48 | 291.05% | 130.66% | 98.94% |
| 49 | 274.61% | 133.92% | 141.39% |
| 50 | 258.46% | 136.29% | 158.66% |
| 51 | 307.76% | 137.63% | 142.70% |
| 52 | 346.15% | 136.56% | 164.72% |
| 53 | 394.92% | 132.63% | 209.48% |
| 54 | 264.18% | 124.95% | 238.91% |
| 55 | 397.69% | 107.85% | 260.22% |
| 56 | 344.27% | 93.61% | 196.61% |
| 57 | 299.35% | 83.85% | 228.26% |
| 58 | 281.22% | 74.41% | 165.43% |
| 59 | 298.53% | 71.21% | 160.71% |
| 10-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 60 | 312.61% | 69.58% | 112.77% |
| 61 | 419.03% | 68.50% | 146.13% |
| 62 | 471.59% | 65.78% | 161.36% |
| 63 | 425.55% | 60.26% | 103.74% |
| 64 | 393.19% | 57.59% | 123.72% |
| 65 | 233.82% | 54.70% | 105.37% |
| 66 | 142.33% | 52.09% | 116.18% |
| 67 | 182.86% | 49.20% | 89.99% |
| 68 | 209.15% | 45.25% | 115.87% |
| 69 | 136.23% | 41.80% | 79.83% |
| 70 | 122.62% | 41.33% | 80.78% |
| 71 | 76.42% | 40.78% | 81.22% |
| 72 | -12.78% | 36.56% | 89.39% |
| 73 | -9.14% | 30.84% | 83.48% |
| 74 | 14.69% | 23.87% | 70.60% |
| 75 | 32.84% | 19.52% | 87.51% |
| 76 | 97.28% | 17.63% | 67.72% |
| 77 | 103.10% | 16.51% | 51.88% |
| 78 | 108.20% | 15.16% | 60.98% |
| 79 | 101.30% | 12.03% | 58.50% |
| 80 | 94.56% | 7.57% | 56.52% |
We also counted the winning percentage of the S&P 500 relative to the US 3-month Treasury Bills and US 10-year Treasury Bonds in Table 5:Looking at the rolling returns for each 10-year period, the S&P 500 wins a whopping 83.75% (that’s 80) relative to the U.S. 3-month Treasury Bill In 10 years, S&P 500 won 67), S&P 500 The win rate relative to the US 10-year Treasury note is also 83.75% (in 80 10 years, S&P 500 wins 67), the winning percentage of holding the stock market is higher than holding it for only 5 years.
【Table 6】From the beginning of1928 to the end of2016 (total 89years)The S&P 500, US3-month Treasury Bills and US10-yearTreasuries are the largest/Minimum10-yearreturn
| S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond | |
| Minimum 10-year returns | -15.49% | 1.93% | 8.13% |
| Maximum 10-year return | 524.84% | 137.63% | 260.22% |
From [Table 6] we found that holding stocks for ten years, the worst loss was 15.49%, although inferior to bonds, but the best rate of return was as high as 524.84%, much better than the US Treasury, and even twice that of the US 10-year Treasury. This is also why the stock market looks at the long and not the short, and it is best to use the 10-year period to look more accurate, more can see the characteristics of the stock market, not only 80% of the remuneration performance is better than the bond, the rate of return is not inferior.
Finally, we’re going to analyze the longer range, the 20-year rolling rate of return:
【Table 7】From the beginning of1928 to the end of2016 (total 89years)S&P 500, US3-month Treasury Bills and US10-YearTreasury Bonds 20Annual rolling rate of return
| 20-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 1 | 117.39% | 20.33% | 85.95% |
| 2 | 59.79% | 17.93% | 88.01% |
| 3 | 106.14% | 15.58% | 88.84% |
| 4 | 260.12% | 11.84% | 81.41% |
| 5 | 693.03% | 10.93% | 85.63% |
| 6 | 925.61% | 11.60% | 74.50% |
| 7 | 575.56% | 12.63% | 78.42% |
| 8 | 943.05% | 13.35% | 70.69% |
| 9 | 842.52% | 15.03% | 61.20% |
| 10 | 667.48% | 17.76% | 50.04% |
| 11 | 962.77% | 21.20% | 58.06% |
| 12 | 1081.45% | 23.26% | 48.48% |
| 13 | 1238.59% | 27.22% | 38.44% |
| 14 | 1403.56% | 31.07% | 46.64% |
| 15 | 2082.86% | 33.93% | 52.75% |
| 16 | 1570.27% | 37.18% | 57.82% |
| 17 | 1537.55% | 40.91% | 56.58% |
| 18 | 1501.58% | 45.30% | 58.34% |
| 19 | 1225.39% | 50.40% | 53.63% |
| 20 | 1203.07% | 57.08% | 53.30% |
| 21 | 1433.50% | 62.96% | 49.50% |
| 22 | 1507.64% | 69.80% | 51.45% |
| 23 | 1146.92% | 78.97% | 37.44% |
| 24 | 887.21% | 88.72% | 59.78% |
| 25 | 811.72% | 94.42% | 75.94% |
| 26 | 816.39% | 98.78% | 76.89% |
| 27 | 694.87% | 108.20% | 76.06% |
| 28 | 286.06% | 122.26% | 73.85% |
| 29 | 298.86% | 131.72% | 82.55% |
| 20-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 30 | 359.72% | 137.18% | 116.62% |
| 31 | 377.57% | 141.54% | 105.45% |
| 32 | 253.92% | 153.77% | 108.22% |
| 33 | 274.34% | 170.20% | 115.32% |
| 34 | 391.48% | 191.63% | 87.10% |
| 35 | 269.85% | 225.95% | 98.36% |
| 36 | 388.40% | 252.06% | 149.26% |
| 37 | 387.31% | 270.28% | 152.97% |
| 38 | 344.32% | 292.13% | 177.37% |
| 39 | 418.78% | 305.66% | 246.20% |
| 40 | 582.81% | 310.28% | 318.12% |
| 41 | 483.59% | 315.75% | 303.76% |
| 42 | 513.72% | 320.45% | 323.11% |
| 43 | 779.37% | 326.55% | 424.26% |
| 44 | 723.11% | 330.01% | 377.02% |
| 45 | 838.51% | 334.41% | 399.69% |
| 46 | 749.51% | 332.13% | 431.49% |
| 47 | 990.16% | 316.97% | 485.60% |
| 48 | 1390.74% | 302.30% | 428.03% |
| 49 | 1392.92% | 300.50% | 529.33% |
| 50 | 1379.05% | 300.70% | 450.35% |
| 51 | 2016.39% | 300.41% | 497.35% |
| 52 | 2450.14% | 292.15% | 591.86% |
| 20-year rolling rate of return | S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond |
| 53 | 2501.05% | 272.79% | 530.52% |
| 54 | 1696.12% | 254.50% | 658.21% |
| 55 | 1561.41% | 221.54% | 639.80% |
| 56 | 976.63% | 194.45% | 541.22% |
| 57 | 1029.59% | 174.31% | 523.66% |
| 58 | 1078.51% | 153.33% | 472.98% |
| 59 | 841.43% | 142.77% | 368.86% |
| 60 | 818.53% | 139.67% | 284.64% |
| 61 | 815.68% | 137.22% | 346.04% |
| 62 | 398.54% | 126.38% | 394.99% |
| 63 | 377.53% | 109.68% | 273.82% |
| 64 | 465.64% | 95.21% | 281.66% |
| 65 | 343.44% | 84.90% | 285.08% |
| 66 | 378.07% | 78.90% | 262.58% |
| 67 | 474.49% | 73.83% | 188.56% |
| 68 | 543.65% | 67.26% | 247.50% |
| 69 | 375.53% | 58.85% | 185.04% |
| 70 | 333.12% | 52.02% | 182.96% |
【Table 8】From the beginning of1928 to the end of 2016 (total 89years)The S&P 500, US 3-month Treasury Bills and US10-yearTreasuries are the largest/Minimum20-yearreturn
| S&P 500 | 3-monthT. Bill | 10-yearT. Bond | |
| Minimum 20-year returns | 59.79% | 10.93% | 37.44% |
| Maximum 20-year return | 2501.05% | 334.41% | 658.21% |
From [Table 7] and [Table 8], it can be found that of the 70 20-year rolling rates of return on the S&P 500, only one time has outperformed the US 10-year Treasury and has completely outperformed the US 3 month treasury bills; In addition, the S&P 500’s worst and best rates of return both won over two U.S. Treasuries.
Therefore, holding the stock market for a longer period of time is more likely to find it good, provided that you can tolerate short-term large fluctuations in exchange for good returns. There is a lot of noise in the stock market in the short term, and only in the long run can we analyze the important signals of the stock market, but there are always people who call themselves experts explaining the daily stock market. So remember, whether you analyze the stock market returns, or the level of traders, you should at least look at more than 10 years, or even 20 years will be better, in order to be able to analyze objectively, otherwise what you see may only be short-term noise!
Finally, there are one important points to remind investors:
1. The premise that long-term holding stocks is better than bonds is that what you hold is like S&P 500’s diversified portfolio, rather than referring to the fact that you randomly pick a few stocks, think that you can get good results in the long run, which is not right! Holding a small number of stocks, in the long run, the most likely end is that you will lose them all!
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